During the past 20 years, Thailand witnessed droughts of varying intensity which put pressure on farming activities. Since the water scarcity problem has placed agricultural production at risk, this poses a serious challenge to farmers to cope with when relying on irrigation for crop cultivation. Despite the analysis of the impact of climate variability on crop yield and the future of production of certain crops using scientific-based crop model reported elsewhere, attempts to address the issues by integrating simulated scientific-based climate factors into economic modeling is still limited. This study analyzes the following issues based on economic concepts by taking irrigated agriculture in the Chao Phraya river basin during the dry season as a point of emphasis: a) the impact of extreme weather conditions on the decision making of farmers about land use for agriculture and productivity improvement, b) the efficiency of irrigated water used in the production of key economic crops, c) the projection of rice production in the face of increasing vulnerability of extreme weather conditions, and d) the reasons explaining why more efficient use of limited water resources should be at the heart of any future water management policy.

• English