Myanmar Economic Monitor: Navigating Uncertainty_January 2023

Myanmar has experienced significant macroeconomic volatility over the past six months. Economic activity has continued to be disrupted by persistent conflict, which has had devastating impacts on lives and livelihoods, and by electricity shortages. The fiscal deficit narrowed in the six months to March 2022, while public debt is estimated to have risen above 60 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). The difficult economic situation has severely affected household welfare and increased vulnerability. Looking ahead, GDP is projected to grow by a modest 3 percent in the year ending September 2023 with output expected to remain well below its 2019 level. Myanmar’s longer-term potential to achieve inclusive growth has been severely diminished over the past two years. The business environment is unlikely to improve materially while electricity shortages, logistics disruptions, trade and foreign exchange restrictions and regulatory uncertainty persist. Recent changes in the policy and political environment are likely to see growth suffer over the longer term as resources are allocated away from more productive and competitive uses. This report shows, exchange rate policy provides an example of how policy responses have exacerbated rather than dampened economic shocks.