Impacts of changes to the population age structure on Vietnam’s economy and policy recommendations

This executive summary provides key updated information and fndings related to the impacts on Vietnam’s economy of changes in the population age structure, and a number of policy recommendations on how to extend the period of the country’s demographic dividend, thereby contributing to the country’s economic growth.

The information and fndings presented are drawn from the updated version (2016) of a previously conducted research (in 2015) by the Vietnam Institute for Development Strategies (VIDS) under the Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI). The updated research uses the National Transfer Accounts (NTA)1 and 2014 data.

Key findings: - Population projections produced by the General Statistics Ofce (GSO)2 indicate that the period of Vietnam’s “demographic bonus” is estimated to end by 2040. The demographic window of opportunity (or demographic bonus) provides opportunities for what is called a “demographic dividend”.3 However, if the 2014 income and expenditure trends of the population by age continue for the next 35 years, Vietnam’s demographic dividend will end by 2017. - From a gender perspective, the period of demographic dividend is longer for male than female population (about three years). By area (urban and rural), however, the period of demographic dividend of both areas could end at the same time.